Lender's Likely to Order Second Last Minute Credit Report
If you're thinking about applying for a home mortgage this year, here's some important news: Beginning June 1, your lender is likely to order a second full credit screening immediately before closing. The last-minute credit report will be designed to find out whether you've obtained — or even shopped for — new debt between the date of your loan application and the closing. If you've made applications for credit of any type — for furnishings and appliances for the new house, a car, landscaping, a home equity line, a new credit card — the closing could be put on hold pending additional research by the lender. If you've taken out new loans that are sizable enough to affect the debt-to-income ratio calculations used in your original mortgage approval, the deal could fall through. The added debt load could render you ineligible for the mortgage because you suddenly appear unable to handle the payments without a strain on your household budget. The June 1 changes are part of a new effort by mortgage giant Fannie Mae to cut down on slipshod underwriting by lenders and frauds by borrowers. Fannie's so-called "loan quality initiative" will require lenders not only to pull two credit reports for each mortgage transaction but to perform additional verifications of borrower occupancy plans for the property, Social Security numbers and Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers, among other changes. "There's an almost irresistible urge" for many mortgage borrowers to spend, said Don Unger, chief executive of Advantage Credit Inc. of Evergreen, Colo. "The lender says, 'OK, you're approved for the loan,' and you immediately think about shopping for all the things you need for the house." Borrowers may go to a retailer and put in a credit application. In the past, that might not have raised an eyebrow, or even been detected. But under the new double-check policy, when the application shows up as a "hard" or borrower-initiated inquiry on a credit report, Unger said, the lender is going to have to contact the merchant and determine whether credit was extended, in what amount and how this might affect the applicant's home-financing transaction. Marc Savitt, president of the National Assn. of Independent Housing Professionals and a mortgage broker in Martinsburg, W.Va., says it's not an uncommon scenario. "Most often the new debt involves furniture or other goods for the house," Savitt said. "However, we have seen debt for new cars and other major purchases." Terry Clemans, executive director of the National Credit Reporting Assn., recalls one case where home buyers "went out and gorged on $40,000 worth of new furniture and all types of stuff" after their loan approval — resulting in monthly payments far beyond what they could afford. Under the new policy, they'd probably be shot down before closing. Fannie Mae spokesperson Janis Smith said lenders "will have to look for things like new credit accounts, increased credit lines, increased balances on existing accounts, undisclosed or newly recorded liens, second mortgages — anything that may have changed since initial application that might impact a borrower's debt-to-income ratio." As a practical matter, some lenders are likely to ask their credit-reporting vendors to perform the investigations when new debts or inquiries pop up on borrowers' files. Fannie Mae's instructions say that "lenders must determine that all debts of the borrower incurred or closed up to and concurrent with the closing" are considered in the final loan analysis. Unger, however, said all this may not be as straightforward as it sounds. For example, if the credit report is pulled immediately before closing to comply with the "up to and concurrent" requirement, there may not be sufficient time to check out inquiries — especially those where no actual drawdown of debt has been reported to the national credit bureaus. He also questioned whether entire loan packages might need to be re-underwritten — a time-consuming process — based on credit data discovered at the 11th hour. How should home buyers and refinancers prepare for the new credit-check procedures? Lenders and credit reporting company executives say everybody needs to follow just one basic rule: abstinence. Between your application for a mortgage and the date of closing — which might be a span of 45 to 60 days or more — resist spending. And don't apply for new credit unless you discuss it in advance with your lender and get a green light.
New Short Sales Rules Impact Buyers
New short sale rules are impacting homebuyers as well as sellers and lenders. Recently, the federal government instituted the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program, or HAFA, which is intended to streamline the short sale process, at least for transactions in which the home sellers have mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. While most HAFA rules affect only the home sellers and their lender, a few of the streamlined rules impact buyers. They include:"Buyers of short sales have had to wait months and months and still not always have their offer approved for a short sale," says Lisa Matykiewicz, a Realtor and Certified Distressed Property Expert in Gilbert, Ariz. "Now there will be defined parameters as to what the lenders will accept and a timeline for when the contract needs to be approved or denied."
- Buyers must present documentation of funds or a preapproval letter from a lender with their offer for a short sale; sellers need to present this to their lender within three days of receiving the offer.
- Lenders must approve or deny the offer for the home within 10 business days of receiving the offer.
- Settlement must take place within a reasonable period of time after the offer is made, but the lender cannot require a closing earlier than 45 days from the date of the sales contract unless the home seller agrees.
- Buyers cannot sell the property again for 90 days. This is meant to prevent investors from "flipping" homes by purchasing at a low price and selling at a quickly inflated price.
- Short sale transactions through HAFA must take place at "arm's length," meaning the home sellers cannot sell the property to a relative or anyone else with whom they have a closer personal or business relationship.
Matykiewicz anticipates fewer foreclosures in 2010 and more short sales due to the streamlined short sales rules. "I think more short sales will be available in 2010 than in 2009 because everyone is cooperating to avoid adding more foreclosures to the market, from the government to the lenders to the homeowners," says Matt Martin, CEO of Matt Martin Real Estate Management in Vienna, Va. Better bet?Homebuyers may find that short sales are not necessarily opportunities for bargain hunting."In reality, short sale properties are priced at what the market will bear because the bank wants to recoup as much as possible of the loan value," says David Liniger, Re/Max International chairman and co-founder. Still, shoppers may find a short sale a better bet than buying a foreclosure, he says. "Short sales are usually in much better condition than a foreclosure because they have an actively involved seller who is living in the property," Liniger says. "Most people would prefer to buy a home in good condition at a reasonable price as opposed to a property in bad condition which will require considerable time and money to make livable." Not all short sales fall under the HAFA program. Homeowners with loans owned by lenders other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will need to negotiate short sales on an individual basis. "One problem that will continue even with the streamlined short sale process is that homebuyers do not know where the homeowner stands in terms of approval for the short sale," says Martin. "Some real estate agents go ahead and list a home as a short sale even before the lender has approved one." If, on the other hand, the home sellers have been preapproved by HAFA for a short sale, "the process should work better," Martin says.
New Short Sale Rules May Help Sellers
Homeowners struggling to sell their homes in a short sale are getting some relief, thanks to the federal government's Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program. Up to now, many short sales — in which the lender accepts a sale of the property for less than the full amount owed -- have taken months to complete. Sometimes, the complex and lengthy process has failed, resulting in foreclosure. HAFA establishes streamlined short-sale rules and provides incentives for borrowers and lenders to work together to avoid foreclosure. The rules — in effect between April 5, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2012 — also are intended to speed up the short-sale process. "The streamlined short-sales process will definitely help homeowners," says David Liniger, Re/Max International chairman and co-founder. Before HAFA, homeowners often listed their home for sale without an idea of what the lender would accept. "A lot of sellers and their Realtors have not been able to sort out the problems with short sales and have given up on the process because, even after sending in the correct paperwork, they have sometimes waited three or four months for their lender to respond," Liniger says. Under HAFA, borrowers receive pre-approved short-sale terms from the lender before putting the home on the market. Lisa Matykiewicz, a Realtor and certified distressed property expert in Gilbert, Ariz., says the updated short-sale rules establish an easy-to-understand process with defined steps that "make it easier for everyone to understand." To be eligible for HAFA, homeowners must first apply for a loan modification through HAMP. Owners who do not qualify for a loan modification or miss payments during the initial loan-modification period qualify for HAFA.Eligibility requirements The HAFA guidelines apply to lenders that voluntarily participate in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). The Department of Housing and Urban Development says more than 100 servicers have signed up to participate in HAMP, covering more than 89% of mortgage debt outstanding in the country.
Other HAFA requirements include: - Property is principal residence.
- Mortgage originated before Jan. 1, 2009.
- Mortgage is owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
- Borrower is delinquent or default is foreseeable.
- Homeowner demonstrates hardship.
- Borrower's total monthly housing payment exceeds 31% of gross income.
- Unpaid principal does not exceed $729,750.
According to HAFA rules, lenders now must offer a short sale in writing to the borrower within 30 days if the borrower does not qualify for or complete a loan modification. Borrowers then must respond within 14 days to the lender's short-sale agreement. "I think it's great that the lenders in this program have to offer a short sale before going to foreclosure," Matykiewicz says. When a purchase offer is made, borrowers must submit the sales contract to the lender within three days, along with the buyers' mortgage pre-approval and the status of negotiations with other lien holders on the seller's property. Finally, lenders must approve or deny the contract within 10 days. HAFA rules also state that lenders must release borrowers from the obligation to repay the difference between the sales price and the loan amount. No deficiency judgments are allowed for a first or second loan. Other incentives In the past, short sales were especially difficult for homeowners with more than one loan on their home, since the home sale typically repaid only the first mortgage. HAFA's financial incentives include a payment of up to $3,000 for second mortgage holders. Other HAFA financial incentives include $1,000 to loan servicers to cover administrative fees, up to $1,000 for mortgage investors who agree to share short-sale proceeds with second lien holders and $1,500 to the homeowners for relocation."Second trust lien holders are often owed five or 10 times that $3,000 payment," Liniger says. "But if the property goes to foreclosure, the second trust holder is not likely to get any money at all. This at least guarantees they get something."
"The moving expense allocation acts as an incentive for them to stay in the property until the short sale goes through," Liniger says. "Owner-occupied properties are usually in better condition than vacant homes."
6 Biggest Mistakes Homebuyers Make
Buying a home is the biggest purchase most people will ever make, yet many go into it blind. Here are the 6 most common -- and costly -- mistakes homebuyers make.1. Not knowing your credit scoreIf you're even toying with the idea of buying a home, you must find out exactly what your FICO score is. If you find it is less than ideal, wage a systematic campaign to raise it. Too many borrowers ignore this step and get surprised when they get interest rate quotes.
Once you've pored over your credit history and corrected any errors, your next step is to pay down revolving debt balances to no more than 30% usage. That will help raise your score significantly. Why does it matter? The lower your score, the higher your costs of borrowing. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for example, charge higher up-front fees to borrowers with credit scores below 740. For a buyer with a credit score between 680 and 700, the fee comes to 1.5% of the mortgage principal. On a $200,000 mortgage, that adds up to $3,000. Someone with a 740 score pays nothing. Lower-score borrowers also get saddled with higher interest rates, about 0.4 percentage point more for the below 700 borrower. That costs an extra $62 a month -- $744 a year -- on a $200,000, 30-year, fixed rate loan. 2. Buying a car before a houseAnytime consumers open new credit accounts -- credit card, auto loan, etc. -- their FICO score could drop, according to Craig Watts, a spokesman for Fair Isaac, the creator of FICO scores. "Hence the admonition to not open other new accounts while your mortgage application is in process," he said. A big purchase would use up a considerable proportion of a borrower's total credit limit, which results in a drop in the score. Lenders often continue to check credit scores in the weeks before closing. "The lender will likely slam on the brakes if the applicant's credit scores have suddenly dropped below the minimum required for the requested loan rate," Watts said. 3. Skimping on home inspectionBuying a pig in a poke can cost buyers big bucks -- just when they can least afford it. So It's vital to find all the costly flaws before you buy. Many homes on the market today are distressed properties -- foreclosures and short sales -- and that only increases the importance of good inspections, according to David Tamny, president of the American Society of Home Inspectors. "The owners usually didn't have the money to keep up these homes," he said. "There's a lot of deferred maintenance." A home inspection can find problems with the foundation, electrical, plumbing, roof, attic insulation, and heating and air conditioning. In some states, separate licensed inspectors offer mold or termite inspections. Often homebuyers, who may be strapped for cash, stint on inspections and look for the cheapest way to go. That can lead to disaster. "The cost of repairs far exceeds the cost of inspection," said Tamny. 4. No lawyerNearly everyone involved in a real estate transaction -- the seller, the buyer's real estate agent, the seller's agent and the mortgage broker -- has a vested interest in getting the deal done because they only get paid when the house is sold. So they may push a deal even if it's not in the best interest of the buyer. One of the best defenses against making am expensive purchase you'll regret is to hire a real estate attorney -- even in cities where it's not standard practice. These professionals charge flat fees and their advice is objective. It's nice to have someone on your side. 5. No contingenciesWhen signing a sales contract, buyers usually have to put up 1% to 3% in "earnest money," which they don't get back if they pull out of the deal except under certain conditions spelled out in the contract. Sellers try to limit the grounds for canceling, and inexperienced buyers may sign contracts that don't include common exceptions, such as uncovering major problems during the home inspection, failing to obtain financing and failure of the house to appraise. Failure to obtain financing is common these days because lenders have become very picky; underwriting is very strict. Even if your mortgage company is still willing to finance your purchase, the house itself may be worth less than you've contracted to pay for it, and the lender will pull its approval. With residential real estate markets still slow, sellers usually accept contingency clauses, but if they resist, it may be better to rethink the deal. Losing a deposit of $2,000 to $6,000 on a $200,000 home hurts. 6. Not budgeting for insuranceDon't underestimate insurance costs and fail to budget for them. Many homebuyers don't understand just what is -- and what is not -- covered. Standard policies pay for theft and wind, fire, lightning, hail and explosion damage. Not covered is flooding, earthquake damage or problems caused by neglect of routine maintenance, according to Jeanne Salvatore, spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute, an industry-sponsored educational group. "The most important thing is before you buy a home, find out what it will cost to insure it," she said. "Insurance needs to be calculated into the cost of owning a home. Unlike a mortgage, which you can pay off, you'll be responsible for the insurance costs forever." For flood insurance, most buyers use the National Flood Insurance Program. Earthquake coverage may be available through a state authority or some private companies. Depending on location, flood insurance can run into a lot of money. The cost of $250,000 worth of government flood coverage on the building and $100,000 of its contents can go as high as $5,714 in high-risk, coastal areas.
Home Sales Jump but Outlook Remains Cloudy
Tax credits sparked a big jump in home sales last month, as first-time buyers took advantage of low prices and interest rates. But the longer-term housing outlook remains clouded, with a large inventory of foreclosed homes expected to hit the market later this year. The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major metro areas found that inventories of homes for sale, as well as the number of distressed borrowers, remain very high in many metro areas. That portends more downward pressure on prices from bank foreclosures. Though tax credits are providing a temporary boost, "we're still in a very fragile housing market," said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm, who doesn't expect a full recovery before 2013. Sales of single-family homes and condominiums hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in March, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. That compares with a 5.01 million rate in February and was up 16% from the depressed March 2009 rate of 4.61 million. The Journal survey found that Miami, Orlando and Tampa, Fla., Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta have some of the highest concentrations of distressed borrowers at risk of losing their homes. Nearly 28% of homeowners with mortgages are at least 30 days late on payments in the Miami area, more than double the national average of 12.2%, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That rate stands at about 24% in Orlando and Las Vegas. Neighborhood Market WatchAlthough tax credits provide a temporary boost, the long-term outlook for the housing market remains clouded. See how five locales are faring. Prudential Americana Group Realtors A 3,601-square-foot home about 10 minutes from the Las Vegas Strip. The supply of homes already on the market is well above the national average in Charlotte, N.C., Jacksonville, Fla., Nashville, Tenn., Chicago and Philadelphia. In Charlotte, where bank cutbacks have increased unemployment, there are enough homes on the market to last 17 months at the average sales pace of the past year. That compares with 15 months in Jacksonville, 13 in the Long Island suburbs of New York and 11 in the New Jersey suburbs. A market generally is considered balanced when the supply is around six months. Among metro areas with relatively low rates of delinquent borrowers and for-sale inventories: Boston, Denver, Dallas, Houston, Minneapolis, San Francisco and Washington, D.C. The median price for home resales in March was $170,700, up 0.4% from a year earlier, the Realtors reported. A price index produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency in February was down 3.4% from a year earlier, the agency said. Realtors say prices for middle-class homes in the types of neighborhoods that attract investors and first-time buyers are flat or rising slightly, while higher-end home prices generally continue to fall. Brandon Sullivan for the Wall Street Journal Rebecca Ahlschwede in front of a home she has offered to buy in Scottsdale, Ariz. She hopes to strike a deal by April 30 to qualify for federal tax credits worth as much as $8,000. For now, real estate agents have a compelling pitch: Prices have fallen an average of about 30% across the country since peaking in 2006; mortgage rates are near their lowest levels in four decades; and many people who sign a contract to buy a home by April 30 can qualify for federal tax credits worth up to $8,000. "Now is the time to do something," said Bill Wilkerson, an agent at ZipRealty in Phoenix. One of Mr. Wilkerson's customers, Rebecca Ahlschwede, last week offered about $200,000 for a three-bedroom foreclosed home with a pool in Scottsdale, Ariz. Ms. Ahlschwede, a 31-year-old neurology technician who currently rents, said the $8,000 tax credit she hopes to receive would be "a huge bonus." The tax credit appears to be giving more of a boost to previously occupied homes than to new construction, as first-time buyers favor the short commutes of older neighborhoods. Ms. Zelman said the rise in sales of new homes appeared more moderate than many builders had hoped. The rush to qualify for the credit will end after the April 30 deadline for signed contracts, though the resulting boost to completed home sales will continue to help monthly reports through June. Those tax credits likely pulled forward sales that otherwise would have occurred later in the year. Partly as a result, "I think we're going to have a pretty soft second half" of 2010 for housing sales, said John Burns, a real estate consultant in Irvine, Calif. Bank efforts to work out lower loan payments for some borrowers have delayed millions of foreclosures, but those who don't qualify are now increasingly losing their homes. Moody's Economy.com predicts that 1.9 million homes will be lost to foreclosures or related defaults this year and another 1.1 million in 2011. That compares with two million last year and 600,000 in normal times. Unemployment remains high and is unlikely to improve much soon, some economists say. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, expects the unemployment rate to be 10.2% at year's end, up from 9.7% in March. At the end of 2011, he sees a still hefty 8.6% rate. Credit conditions, already tight, will get tighter in at least one respect. Around a third of home sales in recent months have been financed by loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, which allows down payments as low as 3.5%. But now, the FHA is tightening its terms somewhat. By early summer, the FHA plans to reduce the maximum amount a seller can contribute to the buyer's closing costs—such as loan-origination, legal and appraisal fees—to 3% of the home price from 6%. That means buyers will have to save more to meet closing costs. Mr. Burns said a survey of builders by his firm found they expected the FHA change to eliminate as many as 15% of potential buyers. Many economists expect rates on standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to rise at least moderately from the recent level of 5% to 5.25%. Mr. Zandi expects a rate of about 5.7% by year's end. Despite these worries, Jacelyn Botti, who heads residential sales for seven mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states for Weichert Realtors, said that home-sales contracts signed by the firm's customers in March were up about 26% from a year earlier in that area, and April was on track for another gain of more than 20%. She said the tax credit and lower prices were driving buyers. Prices on lower-end homes are trending up in some areas, Ms. Botti said. Newland Communities, a San Diego-based company that plans and develops communities in 14 states, says 761 homes sold in those communities in the first quarter, up 28% from a year earlier. Robert McLeod, chief executive officer of Newland, said Austin, Houston and San Diego were among the stronger markets for the company. He thinks recovering consumer confidence is helping sales. "It's all about job growth," Mr. McLeod said.
Fannie Mae Offers Spur to Avoid Foreclosure
Fannie Mae will make it easier for some struggling homeowners to buy houses in the future if they avoid foreclosure in the present. Under rules released this month that will take effect in July, some troubled borrowers who give up their homes by voluntarily transferring ownership through a "deed in lieu of foreclosure" or by completing a short sale, where a home is sold for less than the amount owed, will be eligible in two years to apply for a new mortgage backed by Fannie. Currently, borrowers who complete a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure must wait four years before they can take out a loan that Fannie is willing to purchase. Bloomberg News Foreclosed home in Las Vegas. The new policies from Fannie, a government-backed mortgage-finance company that together with Freddie Mac backs about half of the U.S. mortgage market, don't relax waiting periods for borrowers who go through foreclosure. In 2008, Fannie lengthened that waiting period to five years from four. To quality for the reduced waiting period, most borrowers will need to make a down payment of at least 20%, although borrowers with extenuating circumstances, such as a job loss, will be required to put down just 10%. Even if waiting periods are shortened, many borrowers may be unlikely to repair their credit that quickly in order to get a loan in the first place. Foreclosures and short sales generally have the same effect on a borrower's credit score and can stay on a credit report for up to seven years. The new rules are designed to make foreclosure alternatives more attractive to borrowers at a time when the Obama administration is ramping up its effort to encourage banks to consider alternatives such as short sales. That program sets pre-approved terms for short sales and offers financial incentives to borrowers and lenders to complete such sales. Freddie Mac requires borrowers to wait five years after a foreclosure and four years after a short sale or deed-in-lieu. Those periods can fall to three years for a foreclosure or two years for a short sale when borrowers show extenuating circumstances. Officials at the Federal Housing Administration, the government mortgage insurer, say they are considering changes to their rules, which require borrowers with a foreclosure to wait at least three years before becoming eligible for an FHA-backed loan. "We are beginning to think about post-recession, how you address borrowers who became unemployed through no fault of their own ... and now deserve the right to re-enter the housing-finance system," said FHA Commissioner David Stevens. But some worry that policies enabling defaulted borrowers to more quickly resume homeownership could encourage more people to default. "We don't want to say that there's a 'get out of jail' card during recessions to walk away from your house," Mr. Stevens said. In December, the FHA unveiled rules for borrowers who completed a short sale. Those who have missed payments prior to completing a short sale or who didn't face a hardship and simply took advantage of declining market conditions to buy a new home must wait three years.
Obama Administration Housing Program Offers Homeowners Huge Loan Reductions
Sympathy keeps pouring out of the Obama administration for troubled homeowners that owe more than the current value of their homes. Not a government to tolerate the unfairness of financial distress, it has announced another housing program for under-water homeowners. Taking a $14 billion chunk of the existing $75 billion foreclosure-prevention program, the new program asks that banks and lenders reduce the amount that homeowners owe on their loans and offer them new loans. The new loans will be backed by the Federal Housing Administration. In exchange for slashing the debt owed by the borrowers and participating in the administration's existing foreclosure prevention program, the lenders will receipt incentive payments from the government. The plan also includes three to six months of temporary aid for borrowers who have lost their jobs. There will be additional payments designed to give banks an incentive to reduce payments or eliminate second mortgages such as home equity loans – a problem that has blocked many loan modifications. Will this, the latest and greatest government housing rescue program really work? Well, so far all the prior Obama administration housing rescue plans have been dismal failures. Personally, I don't see this current plan making a significant difference. In my 10-1-08 post entitled I stated: "For the government to come in with this huge bail-out now, would just prolong the housing decline. I'd rather see the government stand aside and let the market forces determine the true area average home selling prices." "For those who think a government intervention is the only way out, I say do it without direct taxpayer money. The undisputed key to this recovery is housing. If the government truly wants to ignite a fire under the housing market, I personally would propose a very simplistic approach that would have immediate results." "The government should pass a bill that allows any home purchaser, owner-occupied or investor buyer, who buys a residential property within the next two years and holds that property for a minimum of three years (and a maximum of ten) to be free of federal capital gains taxes upon selling the property. The potential, tax-free profits on my idea would be a huge incentive for investors to jump back into the residential housing market. This increased demand would clear the built up housing inventory in a matter of months for most areas." Let's face facts … many people purchased homes way out of line with their realistic budgets. Plus, a large percentage of recent homeowners who had their home loans modified are once again behind in payments. What is so wrong with renting? It seems that all these government programs are doing is prolonging the housing recovery.
Now's the Time to Buy A Home
This spring, opportunity is knocking hard for home buyers. Aside from the soon-to-expire tax credit worth as much as $8,000 (you must have a contract by April 30 and close the deal by June 30), affordability has returned to pre-boom levels and mortgage money is cheap, with the 30-year fixed rate hovering around 5%. Before you leap, you'll have to weigh the risk of further price declines in your market. The median price for single-family homes is $163,600, according to the National Association of Realtors -- about what it was in 2002. Fiserv Lending Solutions, a research company in Cambridge, Mass., forecasts that it will fall another 6.4% in 2010. But the price trend varies a lot by city. For example, prices in Washington, D.C., could fall another 12%, while prices are predicted to rise 1% in Pittsburgh, Pa. The biggest predictors of further price declines in most markets are joblessness and distressed sales. More foreclosures and short sales (properties sold with the lender's okay for less than what's owed on the mortgage) are coming, but they'll ease their way onto the market instead of hitting it like a bomb. The supply of homes for sale nationally has drifted downward from its peak in 2008 but is still stacked in favor of buyers -- although in many cities the inventory of entry-level homes has dropped quickly, as first-time buyers and investors have scooped up bargains. On the new-home front, most builders have burned off their existing supply of homes and reduced or eliminated concessions and incentives. They may pay closing costs, but later this year Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rules will limit the seller's contribution to 3% of the purchase price. You can still get upgrades, but you'll pay for them upfront, says Jody Kahn, vice-president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.Unless your area is rife with foreclosures that promise to drag down prices, there's little reason to wait to buy. Mortgage rates are likely to head higher -- the 30-year fixed rate may hit 5.7% by year-end, according to Freddie Mac -- which may negate any benefit you'd get by waiting for lower prices. Suppose you buy a home with a $300,000 mortgage now and lock in a 5% rate. Your monthly principal and interest payments would be $1,610. If you wait until prices drop 6% and borrow $282,000 -- but have to pay 5.7% on the loan -- your monthly payment would be $1,637.
If you need to sell a home before you can buy again, your best strategy is to price it realistically to move it fast (see 3 Keys to Selling Your Home). That was Andy May's strategy when he sold his condo in Rochester, Minn., for a loss before he and his fiancee, Lexi Davis, moved to Salt Lake City. In their search for a home, the couple started their shopping on the Internet. Once they began to tour homes, they discovered that many properties that had looked good online didn't cut it in person -- because of unappealing floor plans or unacceptable commutes. In home buying, what you want -- or not -- evolves after you actually see the homes, says May. After visiting at least 20 houses, they put a bid on a home with four bedrooms, three bathrooms and a big yard for their dog. The home was listed for $250,000 and had been for sale for six months. The couple offered $230,000, and after negotiating settled on a price of $238,500 with $3,500 in seller-paid closing costs -- including a home warranty and a year's worth of homeowners insurance. They put down $7,000 and took out a 30-year, fixed-rate FHA mortgage with a rate of 4.75%. As a first-time home buyer, Davis qualified for a tax credit of $8,000.
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